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There’s no shortage of uncertainty in today’s housing market, and that’s naturally fueling a lot of dramatic headlines. And if you’re trying to buy a home, that kind of noise can make your decision feel a lot more complicated.
In fact, a recent CNBC study asked homebuyers what they’re most concerned about, and the same three topics kept rising to the top:
- Mortgage rates
- The number of homes for sale
- Home prices
The challenge is that much of what people are hearing about these topics is driven by misconceptions, not facts. Let’s separate the headlines from what the data is really showing.
Misconception #1: “I Should Wait Because Mortgage Rates Are Going To Fall Dramatically”
One of the most common ideas circulating on social media is that mortgage rates are about to drop sharply, so waiting to buy is the smarter move.
But is that what experts are expecting?
While mortgage rates have eased a little in recent weeks, forecasts still aren’t predicting any major declines. It’s more likely that rates will stay in the low 6% range this year.
And that’s not a remarkable shift from the rates we’re seeing today:
Obviously, a lot depends on inflation and the broader economy. But based on what we know right now, waiting for a big drop in mortgage rates may not play out the way many buyers hope. As U.S. News explains:
“Mortgage rates aren’t expected to change much over the next several quarters . . .”
And even with rates where they are today, buying a home is already more affordable than it was a year ago. Even if rates don’t drop in the near future, home affordability is better now than a year ago.
Misconception #2: “There Are Too Many Homes for Sale”
You may have heard that housing inventory is rising. Nationally, that’s true: the number of homes for sale is 8% higher than it was at this time last year. But that’s not bad news. In lots of markets, it’s easing the pressure on buyers.
The problem is that some headlines make good news sound like bad news. They focus on the fact that inventory is at its highest level since 2019 or highlight how many new homes builders are adding. That can make it sound like supply is growing too much, too fast.
But the bigger picture tells a different story.
According to new Realtor.com data, even though inventory is up over last year, it’s still nearly 14% lower than it was in the last normal housing market from 2017 to 2019:
And while local conditions vary, only 9 states have more inventory now than they did before the pandemic. That’s a major reason there aren’t enough homes for sale to trigger anything like the 2008 housing crash.
Misconception #3: “Home Prices Are About To Crash”
This is another common headline you’ve probably seen. This misconception comes from the fact that a few metros are actually seeing small price declines. Influencers are pointing to this to claim home prices are crashing. But this is absolutely not true nationally.
In most markets, home prices are still rising, not falling. Here’s why:
- Many homeowners are choosing not to sell to avoid giving up the low mortgage rate they locked in a few years ago. That continues to limit how much inventory can grow.
- Inventory remains below pre-pandemic norms. There still aren’t enough homes for sale to cause a widespread price crash.
- Even in markets with more listings, some sellers are pulling their homes off the market instead of making major price cuts.
Those are three big reasons home prices are not on track for a crash.
And even in the areas seeing small price declines, those drops are nowhere near enough to erase the huge gains most homeowners have built over the past five years:
These drops don’t signal a crash. They show the market settling after a few years of record-breaking spikes in prices.
Bottom Line: Get the Facts on Your Market
The discussions we see online can often exaggerate the negative and ignore the positive, especially in housing. If you want a clearer, truer idea of what’s happening with mortgage rates, housing inventory, and home prices in your market, talk to a trusted real estate professional.
Connect with a local real estate agent so you have an expert who can give you the real story on your local housing market.
